
Somewhere between my second and third cuppa down at the Cozy this morning, the conversation at the mossback table turned, as it is wont to do, to matters financial. As the bloviating gained momentum it became startlingly obvious that the level of economic savvy around the table stood somewhere between vanishingly small and non-existent. This is not meant as deprecation of my caffeine-fueled buddies’ cognitive abilities (we’re a reasonably astute bunch; most of us even remember to zip up … most of the time). I only point out that the complexities, inconsistencies and downright obscurations of the jargon associated with macroeconomics renders it well-nigh impossible for anyone with less than a post-doctoral econ degree to even discuss the subject coherently. Given the (seemingly) purposely obtuse language with which it is festooned, rational discourse on the subject is a bit like piloting the Millenium Falcon blindfolded at warp speed through a meteor swarm while simultaneously reciting ‘Evangeline‘ in Swahili – backwards.
OK – maybe it’s not that tough … but it’s close. Today’s news accounts, as well as more (allegedly) scholarly in-depth reportage (think The Economist) fairly bristle with mondo-economic argot. One is deluged with buzzwords-du-jour, like “stagflation“, “deflation“, “aggregate demand“, “liquidity trap“, “deficit vs national debt“, and on, and on …. To compound the confusion, within different channels of economic thought (e.g., Keynesian adherents as opposed to the so-called Austrian school) disparate meanings are assigned to identical terms! And We The People are supposed to grok this stuff?? Well … actually … no; Uncle Sugar and his merry band of pranksters, gangsters, and banksters (about whom more later) are hoping that we won’t spend the time or effort to understand, really understand, what they are about. But I think it’s time we did just that. So what say, Mel – hitch up your colostomy bag – let’s gather up some know-how and put a little geezer smackdown on these MBA’d whippersnappers.
Over the next few posts, the old bunny will attempt to make the crooked way a little straighter; it’s not that complicated when sprinkled with a bit of plain speaking and common sense. Let’s start with a few definitions:
Monetary Policy: this refers to the process by which the gubmint, through the Federal Reserve, controls the actual physical supply of money (meaning real bills and coins moving around amongst the folks, as well as certain demand deposits like checking & savings accounts), and the cost of money (meaning interest rates). Monetary policy is used (at least theoretically) to effect contraction (make less money available and/or raise interest rates) or expansion (more money and lower rates) of the economy. We’ll talk later about those situations in which conventional wisdom inexplicably holds that uncritical and imprudent tinkering with elemental financial substructures is a good idea.
The first (supply) is regulated by the simple expedient of making more money available through printing/minting more of the stuff, and/or releasing previously sequestered stocks. A more technical, but not significantly more useful, breakdown of money supply is the “M” nomenclature, outlined briefly below. Note: if you choose to ignore the whole “M” spiel, and think of money supply simply as all the money available for spending, plus all the money being saved, you will have grasped 99.9% of the idea.
M0: money in circulation and in bank vaults, plus reserves which commercial banks hold in their accounts with the central bank
M1: includes funds that are available for spending, such as 1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; 2) traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers (like Amex and Postal money orders); 3) demand deposits (checking accounts); and 4) other checkable deposits like so-called NOW accounts (“negotiable order of withdrawal” interest-bearing savings account against which drafts may be written).
M2: Equals M1 plus savings deposits, time deposits of less than $100,000 and individual money market accounts
M3: Equals M2 plus large (>$100,000) time deposits and institutional money-market funds.
The other main aspect of monetary policy – cost of money – is simply the rate of interest at which money can be borrowed from someone in the business of loaning it. A common misapprehension about interest rates is that they are set by the market; this is only derivatively true – the basis of all interest rates is the “federal funds rate“, the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight transfers necessary to satisfy reserve funding requirements (banks are required by law to maintain a certain amount of money on the premises, usually related to the amount of liability to which they are subject).
This fed funds rate is dictated by the “Federal Open Market Committee“, a functional unit of the Federal Reserve and made up of a group of twelve high-finance goomers in twenty five hundred dollar suits, all irreversibly possessed of the laughable notion that they can foretell the future. The FOMC meets eight times per year to consider, among other things, whether or not to mess with interest rates. The rate is jiggered (or not) ostensibly to nudge the economy in whatever direction is deemed desirable, but, in reality, the motives for rate manipulation are usually much more recondite, and rarely, if ever, completely knowable to the public at large.
The far better known “prime rate” customarily runs approximately 300 “basis points” (3%) above the fed funds rate. Whatever effect the market has on interest rates available to ordinary customers comes into play after the prime rate is set. A lender may choose to compete for business by charging lower rates than others, but the rate will virtually always be above the prime rate.
So the Federal Open Market Committee (usually referred to simply as the “Fed”) wields enormous (and, astonishingly, unreviewable) dominion over the entire national financial milieu. Let me say that again – decisions taken by the Fed are, by law, not subject to veto, or even meaningful scrutiny or revision … by anyone! It is conceivable that the President could take the Federal Reserve Chairman to the woodshed … but short of jawboning or outright replacement, there is little the Prez can do. To quote Mel Brooks – “It’s good to be king.”
UPDATE: I am gently reminded by my buddy TH that Brooks’ quote was really, “It’s good to be da king” … and of course he is correct. Please know that I would never intentionally misquote anyone – especially Mel Brooks.
That’s monetary policy for plain folks; next time we’ll look at “Fiscal Policy” – which is a whole other thang ….
Be well.










